The projected burden of arthritis among adults and children in Australia to the year 2040: a population-level forecasting study
Authors' conclusion
Using the latest national-level data, this study has generated contemporary projections of the substantial burden of arthritis (both population size and health-care costs) in Australia.
Study context
- Population
- Adults and children in Australia; prevalence from ABS 2022 National Health Survey (arthritis, OA, RA) and 2021 Census (JIA), applied to national population projections for 2025–2040
- Outcome
- Projected number of people with arthritis, OA, RA and JIA, and associated health system expenditure
- Follow-up
- 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040
Methodological detailsmedium population growth base case, sensitivity analyses with low and high growth scenarios, consumer researcher review, Arthritis consumer researcher and members of the Arthritis Australia Consumer Advisory Panel reviewed the burden estimates
- Medium population growth base case
- Sensitivity analyses with low and high growth scenarios
- Consumer researcher review
- Arthritis consumer researcher and members of the Arthritis Australia Consumer Advisory Panel reviewed the burden estimates
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Projected burden of arthritis in Australia · 2040
- People projected to have arthritis in 2040
- 5.39 million (95% CI 5.19-5.58 million)
- People with arthritis in 2025 (3.95-4.27 million)
- 4.11 million
- Increase in arthritis 2025 to 2040
- 31%
- People expected to have OA by 2040 (2.99-3.23 million)
- 3.11 million
- People expected to have RA by 2040 (652 000-846 000)
- 749 000
- Children and adolescents expected to have JIA by 2040 (little change anticipated)
- about 8500
- Annual health system expenditure for OA and RA by 2040 (conservative forecast; based on AU$2100 per person with OA and $1918 per person with RA)
- exceed AU$11.92 billion
Further findings
Age-standardised rate of OA · 2025 to 2040
- Males, 2025 to 2040
- 6.28% to 7.03%
- Females, 2025 to 2040
- 10.82% to 12.18%
Age-standardised rate of RA · 2025 to 2040
- Males, 2025 to 2040
- 1.56% to 1.75%
- Females, 2025 to 2040
- 2.62% to 2.94%
Original publication
The projected burden of arthritis among adults and children in Australia to the year 2040: a population-level forecasting study. Lancet Rheumatol. Published 5 December 2024. doi:10.
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