Spondyloarthritis & psoriatic arthritis
Predicting psoriatic arthritis in new-onset psoriasis: development of multivariable prediction models from an inception cohort study
Authors' conclusion
Predictors of psoriatic arthritis are already present at psoriasis onset.
Study context
- Population
- Participants with new-onset psoriasis (within 1 year of first lesion on non-hairy skin), Stockholm Psoriasis Cohort, Sweden, enrolled 2001–2005no PsA reported at enrolment
- Participants
- 628 participants
- Outcome
- Concomitant PsA (referral models) and development of clinical PsA (subclinical PsA models, 3-year and 15-year horizons)
Methodological detailsinception cohort, internal validation, recursive partitioning, penalised regression, People with lived experience of psoriasis were involved in study design
- Inception cohort
- Internal validation
- Recursive partitioning
- Penalised regression
- People with lived experience of psoriasis were involved in study design
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Model performance
Concomitant PsA
83
13%
Recursive partitioning with biomarkers: four groups from five factors (arthralgia, fatigue, psoriasis phenotype, hs-CRP, psoriasis disease activity); risk of concomitant PsA
1% to 62%
Discrimination, all models (optimism-adjusted AUC)
0.76-0.84
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Predicting psoriatic arthritis in new-onset psoriasis: development of multivariable prediction models from an inception cohort study. Lancet Rheumatol. Published 30 June 2026. doi:10.
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