Spondyloarthritis & psoriatic arthritis

Quantitative prediction of radiographic progression in patients with axial spondyloarthritis using neural network model in a real-world setting

Arthritis Res TherPublished Prognostic modelling study

Authors' conclusion

Clinical and radiographic data-driven ANN allows precise mSASSS prediction in real-world settings.

Study context

Population
Patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) in a real-world setting
Participants
555 patients
Comparison
Artificial neural network (ANN) models vs generalized linear model (GLM) for predicting modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spine Score (mSASSS)
Outcome
Prediction of mSASSS of the radiographs at follow-up time points
Methodological detailsreal-world setting, training and testing datasets at a 3:1 ratio, explainable machine learning
  • Real-world setting
  • Training and testing datasets at a 3:1 ratio
  • Explainable machine learning

Performance

As reported in the abstract

mSASSS prediction error (RMSE)

ANN (mSASSS as number of each score)

2.83

Root mean squared error (RMSE)

GLM or ANN (mSASSS as total score)

2.99-3.57

RMSE

R2 of the fitted models
0.90-0.95

Further findings

Structural changes constituting the mSASSS scoring systems were the most important contributing factors
No detectable structural abnormalities at baseline were the most significant factors suppressing mSASSS change

Original publication

Quantitative prediction of radiographic progression in patients with axial spondyloarthritis using neural network model in a real-world setting. Arthritis Res Ther. Published 20 April 2023. doi:10.1186/s13075-023-03050-6

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