Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors' conclusion
Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis.
Study context
- Population
- Populations of 204 countries and territories, 1990–2020; hand, hip, knee and other sites of OA204 countries and territories
- Outcome
- OA prevalence and YLDs
- Follow-up
- 2020
Methodological details204 countries and territories, 1990–2020, forecasts of prevalence to 2050 (mixed-effects model), reference case: symptomatic, radiographically confirmed OA
- 204 countries and territories, 1990–2020
- Forecasts of prevalence to 2050 (mixed-effects model)
- Reference case: symptomatic, radiographically confirmed OA
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Global OA prevalence
- People with OA globally
- 595 million (95% UI 535-656)
- Share of global population
- 7.6% (95% UI 6.8-8.4)
- Increase in total cases since 1990 (130.3-134.1)
- 132.2%
- Global age-standardised YLD rate, total OA, per 100 000 (119.7-557.2)
- 255.0
- Increase in age-standardised YLD rate from 1990 (8.6-10.1)
- 9.5%
- Age-standardised YLD rate in 1990, per 100 000 (109.3-510.8)
- 233.0
Further findings
Projected increase in OA cases by 2050 vs 2020, by site
- Knee (59.4-89.9)
- 74.9%
- Hand (35.9-67.1)
- 48.6%
- Hip (57.7-105.3)
- 78.6%
- Other types (68.1-135.0)
- 95.1%
Rank of OA among causes of years lived with disability (YLDs), adults aged ≥70 years · 2020
- Rank
- seventh
Age-standardised prevalence by world region, per 100 000 · 2020
- All world regions
- more than 5.5%
- Southeast Asia (5029.8-6318.1)
- 5677.4
- High-income Asia Pacific (7852.0-9469.1)
- 8632.7
Most common OA site
- Knee was the most common site
OA attributable to high BMI
- Proportion
- 20.4% (95% UI −1.7 to 36.6)
Original publication
Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol. Published 21 August 2023. doi:10.
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