Epidemiological trends of osteoarthritis at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050
Authors' conclusion
As an ageing population and rising obesity rates, the burden of osteoarthritis will continue to rise, with females and the middle-aged and older age groups being the current populations of concern.
Study context
- Population
- Global, regional and national populations, 1990–2021, with projections to 2050
- Outcome
- Burden of OA (prevalence, incidence, DALYs) and trends
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021
Methodological detailsglobal, regional and national, Bayesian age-period cohort projections to 2050
- Global, regional and national
- Bayesian age-period cohort projections to 2050
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
OA burden worldwide · 2021
- Prevalent cases (million), 95% UI 538-671
- 607
- New cases (million), 95% UI 41.1-51.6
- 46.6
- DALYs (million), 95% UI 10.2-42.9
- 21.3
- Age-standardised incidence rate per 100,000, 95% UI 472.38-591.97
- 535.00/100,000
- Age-standardised prevalence rate per 100,000, 95% UI 6180.70-7686.06
- 6967.29/100,000
- Age-standardised DALYs rate per 100,000, 95% UI 117.06-493.11
- 244.50/100,000
- Share accounted for by knee OA
- more than 56%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Age-standardised rates by sex
- Higher in females than in males
Highest burdens by region and country
- Regions: East Asia, South Asia, Western Europe; countries: China, India, United States
DALYs attributable to high BMI
- DALYs (million), 95% UI −0.42-12.34
- 4.43
- Increase
- 205.10%
Projected OA burden · 2021 to 2050
- Would continue to rise
- Bayesian age-period cohort projections
Original publication
Epidemiological trends of osteoarthritis at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050. Arthritis Res Ther. Published 28 October 2025. doi:10.
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