Trajectories of body mass index from early adulthood to late midlife and incidence of total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: findings from a prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
Prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to late midlife in order to reduce overweight/obesity has the potential to significantly reduce the cost and burden of TKA.
Study context
- Population
- Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study participants with weight collected 1990–1994, 1995–1998 and 2003–2007, recalled weight at age 18–21 years and height measured 1990–1994
- Participants
- 24,368 participants
- Exposure
- Body mass index (BMI) trajectories from early adulthood to late midlife vs lower normal to normal BMI (TR1)
- Outcome
- Incident TKA for OA (linkage to National Joint Replacement Registry)
- Follow-up
- 2003-2007 to December 2018
Methodological detailsgroup-based trajectory modelling, registry linkage
- Group-based trajectory modelling
- Registry linkage
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
TKA for OA · Over 12.4 years
Each group vs TR1Hazard ratio (95% CI)
TR2
2.03(1.64–2.52)
TR6
8.59(6.44–11.46)
- Had total knee arthroplasty (TKA) (whole cohort)
- 1,328 (5.4%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
TKA preventable if individuals followed the trajectory one lower (average weight reduction of 8-12 kg)
Population attributable fraction
- TKA preventable if individuals followed the trajectory one lower (average weight reduction of 8-12 kg) — TKA that could be prevented overall
- 28.4%
- TKA preventable if individuals followed the trajectory one lower (average weight reduction of 8-12 kg) — Saving per year
- $AUS 373 million
Original publication
Trajectories of body mass index from early adulthood to late midlife and incidence of total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: findings from a prospective cohort study. Osteoarthritis Cartilage. Published 12 December 2022. doi:10.
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