Lifetime risk and genetic predisposition to post-traumatic osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee in the UK Biobank
Authors' conclusion
Increasing age at injury and female sex appear to be associated with future development of PTOA in UKB, the risk of which was greatest in the 5 years after injury.
Study context
- Population
- UK Biobank participants with clinically significant structural knee injury at ≤50 years4,233 knee injury cases
- Participants
- 502,409 participants
- Exposure
- Knee injury cases vs age-/sex-matched non-injured controls
- Injured casesn = 4,233
- Outcome
- Time to first knee OA code
Methodological detailsage-/sex-matched controls, Cox proportional hazards models, time-to-OA genome-wide association study (GWAS), polygenic risk scores
- Age-/sex-matched controls
- Cox proportional hazards models
- time-to-OA GWAS
- Polygenic risk scores
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Knee OA after knee injury (injured cases vs age-/sex-matched non-injured controls)
Overall HR for knee OA after injury
1.81
1.70,1.93P = 8.9 × 10-74
Injured cases developing knee OA over a median of 30.2 (IQR 19.5-45.4) years
1096
25.9%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Knee OA after injury: female sex
- HR, female sex
- 1.15 [1.02,1.30]
Knee OA after injury: increasing age at injury
- HR, increasing age at injury
- 1.07
Knee OA in the first 5 years after injury
- HR, first 5 years after injury (risk highest; persisting for 40 years)
- 3.26 [2.67,3.98]
Time-to-OA GWAS in knee injury cases
- No variants reached genome-wide significance (3074 knee injury cases)
Idiopathic OA (iOA) polygenic risk scores (PRS) and time-to-OA
- iOA PRS not associated with time-to-OA, HR
- 0.43 [0.02,8.41]
Original publication
Lifetime risk and genetic predisposition to post-traumatic OA of the knee in the UK Biobank. Osteoarthritis Cartilage. Published 27 May 2023. doi:10.
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