Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Utility of the 2019 EULAR/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria for predicting mortality and hospitalisation: development and cross-validation of ominosity score
Main finding · MortalityResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.17 95% CI 0.67–2.03Authors' conclusion
The 2019 EULAR/ACR SLE criteria score was not associated with mortality and hospitalisation. The derived ominosity score for mortality presented good prediction for mortality but was not better than age and sex alone.
Study context
- Population
- Incident patients with SLE in a population-based cohortincident SLE
- Participants
- 374 patients
- Exposure
- 2019 EULAR/ACR SLE score ≥20 points vs ≤19 points
- Outcome
- Mortality and hospitalisation
Methodological detailsCox regression adjusted for age, sex and calendar year, LASSO-derived prediction model, cross-validation
- Cox regression adjusted for age, sex and calendar year
- LASSO-derived prediction model
- Cross-validation
Main finding
Mortality
Hazard ratio
1.17
95% CI 0.67–2.03
Score ≥20vs Score ≤19
HR 1.17 (95% CI 0.67–2.03)
As reported in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| First hospitalisationAdjusted for age, sex and calendar year | 1.14 (0.79–1.64) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
Ominosity score for mortality (age, sex, thrombocytopaenia, neuropsychiatric manifestations, subacute cutaneous or discoid lupus, non-scarring alopecia, inflammatory arthritis, renal involvement, aPL, hypocomplementaemia): discrimination
- Concordance, with adequate calibration
- 0.76
- Concordance of model with age, sex and year only
- 0.77
- Age and sex were the main predictors
Original publication
Utility of the 2019 EULAR/ACR SLE classification criteria for predicting mortality and hospitalisation: development and cross-validation of ominosity score. RMD Open. Published 20 November 2024. doi:10.
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