Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Validation and prognostic utility of SLE Risk Probability Index (SLERPI) in a single-centre retrospective Central European cohort
Authors' conclusion
SLERPI demonstrates high diagnostic accuracy in a single-centre retrospective Central European cohort.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with physician-diagnosed SLE and non-SLE controls from a tertiary centre, Central Europe280 SLE, 156 non-SLE controls
- Comparison
- SLERPI vs 2019 European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) classification criteria, against physician diagnosis as reference standard
- Outcome
- Diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity, AUC) against physician diagnosis
Methodological detailsretrospective, single-centre, tertiary centre
- Retrospective
- Single-centre
- Tertiary centre
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Diagnostic performance vs physician diagnosis
| Test or model | AUC | Sensitivity | Specificity | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLERPI | 0.967 (95% CI 0.950-0.984) | 85.7% | 97.4% | 79.2% |
| 2019 EULAR/ACR criteria | 0.932 (95% CI 0.908-0.957) | 87.1% | 94.9% | 80.4% |
AUC
SLERPI0.967 (95% CI 0.950-0.984)
2019 EULAR/ACR criteria0.932 (95% CI 0.908-0.957)
Sensitivity
SLERPI85.7%
2019 EULAR/ACR criteria87.1%
Specificity
SLERPI97.4%
2019 EULAR/ACR criteria94.9%
NPV
SLERPI79.2%
2019 EULAR/ACR criteria80.4%
- SLERPI vs 2019 EULAR/ACR criteria: DeLong p = 0.0004
Further findings
Baseline SLERPI score and severe flare (SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index) · within 3 years of diagnosis
- Significantly higher baseline SLERPI scores in patients with severe flare
- P = 0.047
- Youden's J threshold potentially informative for severe flare risk stratification
- ≥10.2 points
- Exploratory
Multivariable model of SLERPI items predicting severe flare · within 3 years of diagnosis
- Model AUC
- 0.708 (95% CI 0.641-0.775)
- Optimism-corrected AUC (bootstrap internal validation)
- 0.635 (95% CI 0.574-0.695)
- Independent predictors: proteinuria and serositis at diagnosis
Original publication
Validation and prognostic utility of SLERPI in a single-centre retrospective Central European cohort. Lupus. Published 5 August 2026. doi:10.
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