Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
The incidence, mortality and complications of systemic lupus erythematosus: a population-level cohort study from 2012 to 2023
Main finding · All-cause mortalityResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 2.06 95% CI 1.84–2.32Authors' conclusion
Despite declining incidence, mortality for people with SLE was twice that of controls in this large contemporaneous incident cohort. Ethnicity-based inequalities were observed, with elevated mortality and morbidity risk in Black ethnic groups with SLE compared with White ethnic groups.
Study context
- Population
- Adults (≥18 years) with new systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) diagnoses 2012–2023, Clinical Practice Research Datalink, England (87.9% female; median age 47 years)matched cohort
- Participants
- 4,937 vs 19,707
- Exposure
- Incident SLE vs matched controls; Black vs White individuals with SLE
- SLEn = 4,937
- Controlsn = 19,707reference
- Outcome
- Incidence, all-cause mortality and complications of SLE
Methodological detailscontrols matched 4:1 on age, sex and primary care practice, flexible parametric and competing-risk models, nationwide
- Controls matched 4:1 on age, sex and primary care practice
- Flexible parametric and competing-risk models
- Nationwide
Main finding
All-cause mortality
Hazard ratio
2.06
95% CI 1.84–2.32
SLEvs Controls
HR 2.06 (95% CI 1.84–2.32)
As reported in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Values | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mortality in SLE by ethnicity (Black vs White) | 1.64 (1.05–2.55) | ||
| 0.20.5125Hazard ratio (log scale) |
| Outcome | Values |
|---|---|
| SLE incidence in Black Caribbean individuals (highest rate) · 2023 | Black Caribbean 11.07 (95% CI 6.05–18.58) per 100 000 person-years |
SLE incidence in Black Caribbean individuals (highest rate) · 2023
- SLE incidence highest among people of Black ethnic background
Mortality in SLE by ethnicity (Black vs White)
- Black individuals with SLE had increased risks of diabetes, thrombosis, myocarditis/pericarditis and ILD vs White
Original publication
The incidence, mortality and complications of systemic lupus erythematosus: a population-level cohort study from 2012 to 2023. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 17 April 2026. doi:10.
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