Spondyloarthritis & psoriatic arthritis
The development of a clinical prediction model for response to methotrexate, tofacitinib, and etanercept in patients with Psoriatic Arthritis
Authors' conclusion
Our results support the use of baseline clinical data for prediction of response to different treatments.
Study context
- Population
- PsA patients naïve to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) or failing csDMARD treatment, TOFA-PREDICT trial development cohortdevelopment cohort
- Participants
- 80 participants
- Exposure
- Tofacitinib vs MTX or etanercept
- Tofacitinib (DMARD naïve)n = 20
- Methotrexaten = 20reference
- Add-on tofacitinibn = 20
- Etanerceptn = 20reference
- Outcome
- Treatment response: achievement of MDA
- Follow-up
- Week 16
Methodological detailsdevelopment cohort of the TOFA-PREDICT trial, elastic net regression for predictor selection, Ridge regression, cross-validated
- Development cohort of the TOFA-PREDICT trial
- Elastic net regression for predictor selection
- Ridge regression
- Cross-validated
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Final prediction model for response (MDA at week 16)
- Cross-validated AUC-ROC of final model
- 0.76
- DMARD-naïve patients with higher predicted response probability for MTX vs tofacitinib
- 85%
- Patients failing csDMARD with higher predicted response probability for etanercept vs tofacitinib
- all patients
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
The development of a clinical prediction model for response to methotrexate, tofacitinib, and etanercept in patients with Psoriatic Arthritis. Arthritis Res Ther. Published 27 October 2025. doi:10.
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