Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Risk prediction models for incident systemic lupus erythematosus among women in the Nurses’ health study cohorts using genetics, family history, and lifestyle and environmental factors
Authors' conclusion
A final model including SLE weighted genetic risk score, family history and eight lifestyle and environmental SLE risk factors accurately classified future SLE risk with optimism corrected AUC of 0.75.
Study context
- Population
- Women in the Nurses' Health Study cohorts (NHS, NHSII) with banked blood samples: incident systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cases validated by medical record review and matched controls without SLE138 cases · 1136 controls
- Comparison
- Four sequential SLE risk prediction models: SLE weighted genetic risk score (wGRS); SLE/rheumatoid arthritis (RA) family history; lifestyle, environmental and reproductive factors; combined
- Outcome
- Discrimination (AUC) for incident SLE
Methodological detailsmatched by age (± 4 years) and race/ethnicity, multivariable logistic regression, internally validated using a bootstrapped estimate of optimism of the AUC
- Matched by age (± 4 years) and race/ethnicity
- Multivariable logistic regression
- Internally validated using a bootstrapped estimate of optimism of the AUC
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
AUC for incident SLE
| Group | Value | Optimism-corrected AUC |
|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.58–0.68) | |
| Model 2 | AUC 0.64 (95% CI 0.59–0.68) | |
| Model 3 | AUC 0.71 (95% CI 0.66–0.75) | |
| Model 4 | AUC 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.81) | 0.75 |
Value
Model 1AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.58–0.68)
Model 2AUC 0.64 (95% CI 0.59–0.68)
Model 3AUC 0.71 (95% CI 0.66–0.75)
Model 4AUC 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.81)
Optimism-corrected AUC
Model 1— not stated in the abstract
Model 2— not stated in the abstract
Model 3— not stated in the abstract
Model 40.75
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC for anti-dsDNA positive SLE | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.81 | 0.82 |
| Optimism corrected AUC | — not stated in the abstract | — not stated in the abstract | — not stated in the abstract | 0.79 |
— not stated in the abstract
Original publication
Risk prediction models for incident systemic lupus erythematosus among women in the Nurses’ health study cohorts using genetics, family history, and lifestyle and environmental factors. Semin Arthritis Rheum. Published 25 November 2022. doi:10.
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