Predictive capacity of fracture risk assessment tools: overview of systematic reviews
Authors' conclusion
The vast majority of the models performance is within the range of 0.7 and 0.75.
Study context
- Population
- Systematic reviews (SRs) of fracture risk prediction tools in men and women with fractures in the general adult population26 tools identified
- Comparison
- Fracture risk prediction tools
- Outcome
- AUC (ROC analysis) for predicted fracture risk within a specified timeframe
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
AUC of fracture risk tools
| Group | AUC/C index | AUC |
|---|---|---|
| FRAX | 0.58 to 0.90 | — not stated in the abstract |
| Garvan Model | — not stated in the abstract | 0.57 to 0.84 |
AUC/C index
FRAX0.58 to 0.90
Garvan Model— not stated in the abstract
AUC
FRAX— not stated in the abstract
Garvan Model0.57 to 0.84
— not stated in the abstract
- AUC range across all tools
- 0.58 to 0.90
- Most models within AUC range
- 0.7 and 0.75
Further findings
Prediction variables across tools
- Total different prediction variables
- 21,717
- BWC model predictor variables
- 1
- GSOS tool predictor variables (including many individual SNPs)
- 21,717
Original publication
Predictive capacity of fracture risk assessment tools: overview of systematic reviews. Osteoporos Int. Published 8 September 2025. doi:10.
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