Predictive value of bone mineral density (BMD) for hip and other fractures: a meta-analysis to update FRAX
An erratum to this article was published (Osteoporos Int, May 2026 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
Femoral neck BMD is a risk factor for fracture of substantial importance, particularly for future hip fracture.
Study context
- Population
- Men and women from 53 predominately population-based cohorts, mean follow-up 8.7 years
- Participants
- 307,205 men53 cohorts
- Comparison
- Femoral neck BMD and fracture risk
- Outcome
- Gradient of risk (GR, HR per SD decrease in DXA-measured femoral neck BMD) for hip fracture
Methodological detailsmeta-analysis of primary data, predominately population-based cohorts, Poisson model in each cohort separately by sex, weighted coefficients, 2,683,185 person-years of follow-up
- Meta-analysis of primary data
- Predominately population-based cohorts
- Poisson model in each cohort separately by sex
- Weighted coefficients
- 2,683,185 person-years of follow-up
Pooled result
As reported in the abstract
Hip fracture, GR at age 65 years
Men
2.73
Gradient of risk (GR) · 95% CI 2.29–3.26
Women
2.61
GR · 95% CI 2.34–2.92
Further pooled results
Hip fractures arising in low bone mass or osteoporosis at baseline
MOF arising in low bone mass or osteoporosis at baseline
| Outcome | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| Hip fracture GR by age (age 50 vs age 80 years) | GR at age 50 3.49 (95% CI 2.51–4.84) | GR at age 50 3.23 (CI 2.75–3.80) |
| GR at age 80 | 2.14 (1.96-2.34) | 2.11 [1.99-2.44] |
Hip fracture GR by age (age 50 vs age 80 years)
- Association significantly dependent on age, with higher GR at younger ages
Major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) GR change with age
- GR for MOF remained unchanged with age (women)
- P = 0.12
- GR for MOF remained unchanged with age (men)
- P = 0.89
Hip fracture GR by duration of follow-up
- Significant decrease in GR with increasing follow-up, modest compared with the effect of age
Other fracture outcomes incl. non-hip MOF
- GR lower than for hip fracture
Original publication
Predictive value of BMD for hip and other fractures: a meta-analysis to update FRAX. Osteoporos Int. Published 12 March 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →