Predictions of rheumatoid arthritis burden in 204 countries and territories by 2044: based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors' conclusion
Global prevalence and incidence of RA are projected to rise further.
Study context
- Population
- Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2021, Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data204 countries and territories
- Primary endpoint
- Temporal trends in age-standardised prevalence (ASPR), incidence (ASIR) and DALYs (ASDR) of RA, with projections through 2044
- Follow-up
- 1990–2021; projected to 2044
Methodological details204 countries and territories, estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) trend analysis, Joinpoint, AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Nordpred age-period-cohort projections
- 204 countries and territories
- EAPC and AAPC trend analysis
- Joinpoint
- ARIMA and Nordpred age-period-cohort projections
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
Global RA trends 1990–2021 (AAPC)
Global age-standardised prevalence (ASPR) AAPC
0.44
Global ASIR AAPC
0.40
Global ASDR AAPC (modest decline)
−0.03
Further findings
Highest country rates in 2021
- Ireland highest ASPR
- 529.08
- Ireland highest ASIR
- 35.08
- Mexico highest ASDR
- 87.45
Sociodemographic index (SDI), sex and age differences
- Higher SDI regions bore a greater RA burden overall; lower SDI regions had more rapid increases
- Women, particularly aged ≥60 years, had higher rates than men across all metrics
Risk factors for RA disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
- Smoking a vital risk of DALYs across age groups, genders and regions
Projections through 2044 (Nordpred and ARIMA)
- Continued rapid growth in prevalence and incidence cases, with more gradual increases in ASPR and ASIR
Original publication
Predictions of rheumatoid arthritis burden in 204 countries and territories by 2044: based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Clin Exp Rheumatol. Published 12 April 2025. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →