Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
An erratum to this article was published (Lancet Rheumatol, Nov 2024 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
Our forecasting model estimates that the number of individuals with gout will increase by more than 70% from 2020 to 2050, primarily due to population growth and ageing.
Study context
- Population
- Global, regional and national population, 1990–2020; population-based data from 35 countries and claims data from the USA and Taiwan (province of China)35 countries
- Comparison
- Males vs Females
- Outcome
- Gout prevalence and YLDs by sex, age and location, with prevalence forecast to 2050
- Follow-up
- 2020
Methodological detailsnested Bayesian meta-regression models, mixed-effects forecasting model
- Nested Bayesian meta-regression models
- Mixed-effects forecasting model
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Global gout prevalence
- People with gout globally
- 55.8 million (95% UI 44.4-69.8)
- Age-standardised prevalence per 100 000
- 659.3 (95% UI 525.4-822.3)
- Increase in age-standardised prevalence since 1990
- 22.5% (95% UI 20.9-24.2)
- Prevalence in males vs females, times higher (95% UI 3.11-3.39); increased with age
- 3.26
- Global age-standardised YLD rate per 100 000
- 20.5 (95% UI 14.4-28.2)
Further findings
Forecast gout prevalence · 2050
- Total prevalent cases (95% UI 81.1-116); population growth the largest contributor
- 95.8 million
- Age-standardised prevalence per 100 000
- 667 (95% UI 531-830)
Risk factors: share of gout years lived with disability (YLDs) · 2020
- High BMI
- 34.3% (95% UI 27.7-40.6)
- Kidney dysfunction
- 11.8% (95% UI 9.3-14.2)
Original publication
Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol. Published 9 July 2024. doi:10.
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