Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990–2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years
Authors' conclusion
The disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years.
Study context
- Population
- Osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex and joint site, 1990–2019, with projection to 2044
- Primary endpoint
- Temporal trend of OA burden (ASR of incidence, prevalence, DALYs)
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2019
Methodological detailsEstimated annual percentage change (EAPC), Nordpred age-period-cohort model projection
- EAPC
- Nordpred age-period-cohort model projection
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
OA burden in China, ASR per 100,000, 1990 vs 2019
ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53 to 509.84 per 100,000; EAPC
0.36
95% CI 0.29–0.44
ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5,880.58 to 6,330.06 per 100,000; EAPC
0.35
95% CI 0.28–0.42
ASR of OA disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) increased from 206.38 to 224.78 per 100,000; EAPC
0.40
95% CI 0.32–0.48
Further findings
ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high body mass index (BMI) · 1990 to 2019
- Increased rapidly, especially in men and patients with hip OA
Projected OA burden, 2019 to 2044
- Increasing trend in incidence, prevalence and DALYs; prevalent cases and DALYs expected to increase by ≈1.5 times over the next 25 years
Original publication
Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990–2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). Published 2 April 2024. doi:10.
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