Development of a prediction model for poor prognosis in childhood-onset Takayasu's arteritis
Authors' conclusion
We used easily accessible clinical and laboratory data to establish a nomogram model for predicting the probability of poor prognosis with hospitalized cTAK patients.
Study context
- Population
- Hospitalized patients with childhood-onset TAK (cTAK)median follow-up 36.0 [24.0, 60.0] months
- Participants
- 111 patients
- Exposure
- Poor prognosis vs good prognosis
- Poor prognosisn = 38
- Good prognosisn = 73reference
- Outcome
- Poor prognosis (vascular complications, disease recurrence, persistent non-remission, cTAK-related death); risk factors and nomogram prediction model
Methodological detailslongitudinal, multicentre, nomogram prediction model
- Longitudinal
- Multicentre
- Nomogram prediction model
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Independent factors for poor prognosis
- ITAS.A, OR
- 1.20
- Internal carotid artery stenosis, OR
- 3.21
- External carotid artery stenosis, OR
- 3.57
- Aortic insufficiency, OR
- 3.88
- Mitral insufficiency, OR
- 9.08
- Tricuspid insufficiency, OR
- 15.67
- Hypertensive heart disease, OR
- 7.42
- All P values
- < 0.05
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Nomogram model performance
- AUC
- 0.79
- C-index
- 0.73
- Accuracy after bootstrapping for 1000 repetitions
- 67.0%
Original publication
Development of a prediction model for poor prognosis in childhood-onset Takayasu's arteritis. Semin Arthritis Rheum. Published 21 March 2025. doi:10.
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