Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus
An erratum to this article was published (RMD Open, 14 Dec 2023 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
Various factors are related to the occurrence of VTE in patients with SLE. The proposed SLE-VTE risk score can accurately predict the risk of VTE and help identify patients with SLE with a high risk of VTE who may benefit from thromboprophylaxis.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the Chinese SLE Treatment and Research group cohort (CSTAR)135 venous thromboembolism (VTE) events in development cohort
- Participants
- 4,502 vs 3,780
- Comparison
- Development vs External validation
- Developmentn = 4,502
- External validationn = 3,780
- Outcome
- VTE risk (prediction model)
- Follow-up
- Within 6 months
Methodological detailsmultivariate logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator
- Multivariate logistic regression
- Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination of SLE-VTE score (11 variables)
| Test or model | AUC |
|---|---|
| Development | 0.947 |
| External validation | 0.808 |
AUC
Development0.947
External validation0.808
- Variables: gender, age, BMI, hyperlipidaemia, hypoalbuminaemia, CRP, anti-β2GPI antibodies, LA, renal involvement, nervous system involvement and HCQ
- 11
Further findings
- VTE events in development cohort
- 135 · events
Original publication
Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus. RMD Open. Published 23 November 2023. doi:10.
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