Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Risk prediction of new-onset thrombocytopenia in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a multicenter prospective cohort study based on Chinese systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) treatment and research group (CSTAR) registry
Authors' conclusion
This study developed the first risk prediction model for TP onset in lupus patients. Patients with baseline organ damage, hemolytic anemia, low complement, positive anti-histone antibody, positive anti-β2GPI antibody, or positive Coombs test were identified as being at high risk for thrombocytopenia
Study context
- Population
- Newly diagnosed SLE patients without thrombocytopenia at registration, CSTAR registry (China)
- Participants
- 2,270 participants
- Outcome
- New-onset thrombocytopenia (TP)
Methodological detailsrisk prediction model development, multicentre, CSTAR registry, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) variable selection, multivariate Cox regression, nomogram, internal validation by enhanced Bootstrap resampling
- Risk prediction model development
- Multicentre
- CSTAR registry
- LASSO variable selection
- Multivariate Cox regression
- Nomogram
- Internal validation by enhanced Bootstrap resampling
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Predictors of new-onset TP in final model
Hazard ratio (95% CI)P value
Baseline SDI score ≥ 1
2.207(1.350–3.609)
P = 0.002Hemolytic anemia
1.953(1.017–3.750)
P = 0.044Low complement level
2.351(1.004–5.505)
P = 0.049Positive anti-β2GPI antibody
1.805(1.084–3.004)
P = 0.024Positive Coombs test
1.878(1.123–3.141)
P = 0.017Positive anti-histone antibody
1.595(1.017–2.587)
P = 0.059- New-onset thrombocytopenia (TP) during follow-up
- 80 (3.52%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Model discrimination: C-index for risk prediction
- C-index at one year
- 0.741 (0.660-0.823)
- C-index at two years
- 0.730 (0.655-0.805)
- C-index at three years
- 0.710 (0.643-0.777)
Model performance: Brier score
- Brier score at one year
- 0.018 (0.012-0.024)
- Brier score at two years
- 0.025 (0.017-0.032)
- Brier score at three years
- 0.037 (0.027-0.046)
Calibration
- Calibration curves situated near the diagonal line
Original publication
Risk prediction of new-onset thrombocytopenia in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a multicenter prospective cohort study based on Chinese SLE treatment and research group (CSTAR) registry. Arthritis Res Ther. Published 27 December 2024. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →