Osteoarthritis

Body Mass Index (BMI) and Varus Malalignment Compound to Define a High-Risk Phenotype for Compartment-Specific Knee Osteoarthritis Progression

Osteoarthritis CartilagePublished Cohort analysis of the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Authors' conclusion

BMI and lower limb alignment influence structural KOA progression through compartment-specific pathways. The compounding interaction in the medial compartment identifies high BMI combined with varus malalignment as a high-risk phenotype for medial structural progression.

Study context

Population
Participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative followed over 0–60 monthsparticipants, 5,930 limbs analyzed
Participants
3,191 participants
Outcome
Medial compartment cartilage thickness change, BMI x varus alignment interaction
Methodological detailslinear mixed-effects models, logistic regression with participant-clustered standard errors, adjusted for age, sex, and baseline Kellgren-Lawrence grade
  • Linear mixed-effects models
  • Logistic regression with participant-clustered standard errors
  • Adjusted for age, sex, and baseline Kellgren-Lawrence grade

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Femur: β per 1-SD BMI x 1-SD hip-knee-ankle (HKA) (95% CI [0.0001, 0.0031])

0.0016 mm/year

Tibia: β (95% CI [0.0008, 0.0028])

0.0018

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Lateral compartment cartilage loss, nonlinear alignment association (time x HKA2)

Femur β (95% CI [−0.0038, −0.0027])
−0.0032 mm/year
Tibia β (95% CI [−0.0040, −0.0026])
−0.0033
Alignment, but not BMI, was associated with faster cartilage loss

Total knee replacement (TKR) odds per 1-degree greater absolute HKA deviation from the radiographically healthy reference angle (−1.0°) · five and ten years

Five years, fold increase (95% CI [1.04, 1.18])
1.11
Ten years, fold increase (95% CI [1.08, 1.21])
1.14
BMI did not modify the association between HKA deviation and TKR

Original publication

BMI and Varus Malalignment Compound to Define a High-Risk Phenotype for Compartment-Specific Knee Osteoarthritis Progression. Osteoarthritis Cartilage. Published 12 November 2026. doi:10.1016/j.joca.2026.11.003

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