Vasculitis & polymyalgia rheumatica
Analysis of risk factors associated with diffuse alveolar haemorrhage in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis and construction of a risk prediction model using line graph
Authors' conclusion
The new nomogram, which included age, Hb, ESR, PLT and haematuria as variables, had the potential to predict the risk of AAV patients complicated with DAH.
Study context
- Population
- Patients diagnosed with ANCA-associated Vasculitis (AAV), First Clinical College of Three Gorges University, January 2012 to May 202385 developed diffuse alveolar haemorrhage (DAH)
- Participants
- 234 patients
- Outcome
- Independent predictors of DAH in AAV and a nomogram risk prediction model
Methodological detailssingle-centre, LASSO regression with 10-fold cross-validation, multivariate logistic regression, nomogram, bootstrap internal validation
- Single-centre
- LASSO regression with 10-fold cross-validation
- Multivariate logistic regression
- Nomogram
- Bootstrap internal validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Independent predictors of DAH in AAV (multivariable logistic regression)
Odds ratio (95% CI)P value
Age
1.037(1.006–1.071)
P = 0.019Platelet count (PLT)
0.996(0.992–0.999)
P = 0.029ESR
1.028(1.015–1.042)
P < 0.01HB
0.978(0.959–0.996)
P = 0.024Haematuria
3.77(1.677–8.976)
P = 0.001- Incidence of DAH
- 36%
- Nomogram AUC (ROC) for DAH
- 0.852 (95%CI: 0.801, 0.903)
- Consistency index (C-index) after internal verification
- 0.824
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Analysis of risk factors associated with diffuse alveolar haemorrhage in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis and construction of a risk prediction model using line graph. Clin Exp Rheumatol. Published 19 October 2023. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →