Vasculitis & polymyalgia rheumatica
Estimating 2-year risk of first relapse in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis: derivation of a risk-prediction model based on participants in the PEXIVAS trial
Authors' conclusion
Our model estimates the risk of first relapse for individuals with AAV within 2 years after achieving disease remission.
Study context
- Population
- Participants with AAV with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <50 mL/min/1.73 m² or diffuse alveolar haemorrhage, enrolled in a trial of plasma exchange and a reduced GC dosing regimen, who achieved disease remission100 relapsed within 2 years
- Participants
- 649 participants
- Primary endpoint
- Risk of first relapse within 2 years of remission
- Follow-up
- 2 years
Methodological detailspost hoc analysis, risk-prediction model derivation, LASSO regression, time-to-event analysis
- Post hoc analysis
- Risk-prediction model derivation
- LASSO regression
- Time-to-event analysis
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
Risk-prediction model performance for first relapse within 2 years of remission
Optimism-corrected Harrell's AUC
0.709
95% CI 0.707–0.710
Calibration slope
0.99
95% CI 0.65–1.34
Original publication
Estimating 2-year risk of first relapse in ANCA-associated vasculitis: derivation of a risk-prediction model based on participants in the PEXIVAS trial. Ann Rheum Dis. Published 23 September 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →