A score for predicting colchicine resistance at the time of diagnosis in familial Mediterranean fever: data from the Turkish Paediatric Autoinflammatory Diseases (TURPAID) registry
Authors' conclusion
We developed a clinician-friendly and practical predictive score that could help us identify FMF patients with a greater risk of colchicine resistance and tailor disease management individually at the time of diagnosis.
Study context
- Population
- FMF patients aged 0–18 years enrolled in the Turkish Paediatric Autoinflammatory Diseases (TURPAID) registry
- Participants
- 256 / 3,189 / 2,684 / 671
- Comparison
- Colchicine-resistant vs colchicine-responsive FMF patients
- Colchicine-resistantn = 256
- Colchicine-responsiven = 3,189reference
- Trainingn = 2,684
- Validationn = 671
- Outcome
- Score for predicting colchicine resistance at the time of FMF diagnosis
- Follow-up
- At the time of FMF diagnosis
Methodological detailsregistry-based, multivariate logistic regression, ROC analysis, training and validation cohorts
- Registry-based
- Multivariate logistic regression
- ROC analysis
- Training and validation cohorts
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Predictive score for colchicine resistance (age at symptom onset, attack frequency, arthritis, chest pain, two exon 10 mutations)
| Test or model | Sensitivity | Specificity |
|---|---|---|
| Training | 81.3% | 49.1% |
| Validation | 93.5% | 53.8% |
Sensitivity
Training81.3%
Validation93.5%
Specificity
Training49.1%
Validation53.8%
Further findings
| Outcome | P value |
|---|---|
| Clinical characteristics, colchicine-resistant vs colchicine-responsiveColchicine-resistant vs Colchicine-responsive | P < 0.05 |
| Clinical characteristics, colchicine-resistant vs colchicine-responsiveColchicine-resistant vs Colchicine-responsive | P < 0.05 |
- Clinical characteristics, colchicine-resistant vs colchicine-responsive: longer, more frequent attacks; younger at symptom onset and diagnosis
- Clinical characteristics, colchicine-resistant vs colchicine-responsive: more prevalent fever, erysipelas-like erythema, arthralgia, arthritis, myalgia, abdominal pain, diarrhoea, chest pain, comorbidities, parental consanguinity, homozygosity/compound heterozygosity for exon 10 MEFV mutations
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
A score for predicting colchicine resistance at the time of diagnosis in familial Mediterranean fever: data from the TURPAID registry. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 25 May 2023. doi:10.
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