Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
A Flare Risk Index Informed by Select Immune Mediators in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus
Authors' conclusion
We verified altered immune mediators associated with imminent disease flare, and a subset of these mediators improved the FRI to identify SLE patients at risk of imminent flare.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with classified systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) (ACR 1997 or SLICC 2012 revised criteria) from a longitudinal cohortlongitudinal cohort
- Participants
- 106 patients
- Comparison
- Preflare vs pre-nonflare plasma samples
- Preflaren = 46
- Pre-nonflaren = 53reference
- Outcome
- Optimal immune mediators informing a refined flare risk index (FRI) reflecting altered immunity prior to clinical flare
Methodological detailslongitudinal cohort, random forest analysis, logistic regression, decision curve analysis, Thirty-seven SLE-associated plasma mediators evaluated by microfluidic immunoassay
- Longitudinal cohort
- Random forest analysis
- Logistic regression
- Decision curve analysis
- Thirty-seven SLE-associated plasma mediators evaluated by microfluidic immunoassay
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Refined FRI (11 mediators) for identifying preflare vs pre-nonflare
Final combination of mediators informing refined flare risk index (FRI)
11
Maximum sensitivity of refined FRI
97%
Maximum specificity of refined FRI
98%
Further findings
Demographics, autoantibody specificities, hybrid SLE Disease Activity Index (hSLEDAI) scores, clinical features, medication usage
- Preflare vs pre-nonflare differences not associated with these factors
Original publication
A Flare Risk Index Informed by Select Immune Mediators in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. Arthritis Rheumatol. Published 6 March 2023. doi:10.
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