Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome

Which extra-renal flare is ‘difficult to treat’ in systemic lupus erythematosus? A one-year longitudinal study comparing traditional and machine learning approaches

Rheumatology (Oxford)Published Longitudinal cohort study

Authors' conclusion

Our clusterization well separates extra-renal flares according to their baseline features and may propose a new identification standard.

Study context

Population
Extra-renal flares in SLE patients of the authors' cohort, 2015–2021, with at least one year of follow-up
Participants
79 extra-renal flares
Exposure
Difficult to treat (D2T) vs non-D2T extra-renal flares; clusters of flares by baseline features
Outcome
Attainment of remission and LLDAS; D2T flare defined as non-attainment of LLDAS at 6 and 12 months
Follow-up
12 months
Methodological detailsone-year follow-up, cluster analysis, machine learning model, 420 SLE patients in cohort; 114 flares 2015–2021
  • One-year follow-up
  • Cluster analysis
  • Machine learning model
  • 420 SLE patients in cohort; 114 flares 2015–2021

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Flare outcomes at 12 months

In LLDAS

79.4%

In remission

49.4%

D2T flares

17

21.5%

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Flare phenotypes

Mucocutaneous
24.1%
Musculoskeletal
45.6%

Clusters and predictors of D2T flares

Cluster 'D' (mild-moderate mucocutaneous flares, history of skin involvement) had the lowest remission rate
Not being in LLDAS at 3 months was the unique independent predictor of D2T flares
D2T flares received higher cumulative and daily glucocorticoid (GC) dose

Original publication

Which extra-renal flare is ‘difficult to treat’ in systemic lupus erythematosus? A one-year longitudinal study comparing traditional and machine learning approaches. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 24 April 2023. doi:10.1093/rheumatology/kead166

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