The Prognostic Potential of End-Stage Knee Osteoarthritis and Its Components to Predict Knee Replacement: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative
Authors' conclusion
Radiographic severity may be a screening tool to find a knee that will likely receive a KR. However, esKOA may be an ideal outcome in clinical trials because a change in esKOA state predicts future KR.
Study context
- Population
- Osteoarthritis Initiative participants' knees; mostly female (58%), ≥ 65 years old, White (82%), without radiographic knee OA (50%)
- Comparison
- Base model of common knee replacement (KR) risk factors plus end-stage knee osteoarthritis (esKOA) or each esKOA component
- Outcome
- Future KR predicted by esKOA (2 definitions) and each component
- Follow-up
- KR from baseline until the fifth yearly contact
Methodological detailssecondary analysis of the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort, knee-based analyses, logistic regression with generalized estimating equations, AUC and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) indices
- Secondary analysis of the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort
- Knee-based analyses
- Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations
- AUC and Hosmer-Lemeshow test
- NRI and IDI indices
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Prediction of KR at the visit before a KR (best performances) · visit (< 12 months) before a KR
| Test or model | AUC | NRI | IDI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades | 0.88 | 1.12 | 0.11 |
| Alternate esKOA definition | 0.84 | 1.16 | 0.12 |
| All esKOA components | 0.91 | 1.30 | 0.17 |
AUC
Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades0.88
Alternate esKOA definition0.84
All esKOA components0.91
NRI
Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades1.12
Alternate esKOA definition1.16
All esKOA components1.30
IDI
Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades0.11
Alternate esKOA definition0.12
All esKOA components0.17
Further findings
| Outcome | Values |
|---|---|
| Prediction of KR by change during the year before a KR (best performance) | Change in esKOA (alternate definition) AUC 0.86 · NRI 1.24 · IDI 0.12 |
Original publication
The Prognostic Potential of End-Stage Knee Osteoarthritis and Its Components to Predict Knee Replacement: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative. J Rheumatol. Published 1 September 2023. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →