Risk-updating nomogram for refractory systemic JIA in children: multicentre development and external validation
Authors' conclusion
A nomogram-based approach integrating baseline disease activity with early response information enables risk updating after initial treatment and may support timely treatment individualization for rSJIA.
Study context
- Population
- Children with newly diagnosed sJIA, multicentre retrospective cohorttraining 55
- Participants
- 128 children
- Comparison
- Update model vs baseline-only model
- Outcome
- Prespecified composite:
- rSJIA outcome during follow-up
- Model discrimination (AUC)
Methodological detailsretrospective cohort, multicentre, nomogram
- Retrospective cohort
- Multicentre
- Nomogram
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination (AUC) for rSJIA
| Test or model | AUC, internal testing (95% CI 0.803-1.000) | AUC, external validation (95% CI 0.818-0.996) | AUC, internal testing (95% CI 0.746-1.000) | AUC, external validation (95% CI 0.679-0.926) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Update model | 0.919 | 0.907 | — not stated in the abstract | — not stated in the abstract |
| Baseline-only model | — not stated in the abstract | — not stated in the abstract | 0.882 | 0.803 |
AUC, internal testing (95% CI 0.803-1.000)
Update model0.919
Baseline-only model— not stated in the abstract
AUC, external validation (95% CI 0.818-0.996)
Update model0.907
Baseline-only model— not stated in the abstract
AUC, internal testing (95% CI 0.746-1.000)
Update model— not stated in the abstract
Baseline-only model0.882
AUC, external validation (95% CI 0.679-0.926)
Update model— not stated in the abstract
Baseline-only model0.803
— not stated in the abstract
- Update model vs sJADAS27 alone: DeLong P = 0.040 — update model outperformed
- Update model vs sJADAS27 alone: DeLong P = 0.019 — update model outperformed
Further findings
Predictors of rSJIA in the update model
- sJADAS27, OR per 1-point increase
- 1.34 (95% CI 1.06-1.69)
- Rerash, OR
- 7.38 (95% CI 1.07-51.16)
- tCID, OR per day (95% CI 0.99-1.08), non-significant
- 1.04
Original publication
Risk-updating nomogram for refractory systemic JIA in children: multicentre development and external validation. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 23 May 2026. doi:10.
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