Systemic sclerosis & Raynaud's
Preliminary nomogram model for predicting irreversible organ damage of patients with systemic sclerosis
Authors' conclusion
According to the nomogram, the probability of irreversible organ damage can be calculated and high-risk patients can be identified.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) treated at one hospital, March 2013–March 2023
- Participants
- 361 patients
- Exposure
- Development vs Validation
- Developmentn = 181
- Validationn = 180
- Outcome
- Irreversible organ damage (HF, respiratory failure, renal failure, gangrene of the hands and feet)
Methodological detailssingle-centre, prediction model development and validation, Cox and LASSO regression, nomogram
- Single-centre
- Prediction model development and validation
- Cox and LASSO regression
- Nomogram
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Independent risk factors for irreversible organ damage (multivariate Cox regression)
- Age ≥65 years
- Weight loss
- Digital ulcers
- mRSS ≥16
- Elevated creatinine
- Elevated myoglobin
- Elevated CRP
- Renal involvement
- Cardiac involvement
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Development | Validation |
|---|---|---|
| Nomogram C-index at 24, 60 and 96 m | ||
| C-index 24 m | 96.7 | 86.6 |
| C-index 60 m | 84.5 | 79.1 |
| C-index 96 m | 85.7 | 78.5 |
Decision curve analysis
- DCA showed the nomogram can be used as a valuable tool to predict irreversible organ damage
Original publication
Preliminary nomogram model for predicting irreversible organ damage of patients with systemic sclerosis. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 6 February 2024. doi:10.
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