Predictors of arthritis development in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis: a 5-year follow-up study from a large cohort
Authors' conclusion
Baseline characteristics can be used to predict future RA development in seropositive arthralgia individuals.
Study context
- Population
- At-risk individuals with arthralgia positive for anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) and/or IgM-RFseropositive arthralgia
- Participants
- 617 individuals
- Outcome
- RA (arthritis) development
- Follow-up
- Up to 5 years
Methodological detailsCox proportional hazard regression, up to 5-year follow-up
- Cox proportional hazard regression
- Up to 5-year follow-up
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Predictors of arthritis development (baseline characteristics)
- First-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), HR
- 1.50
- Intermittent symptoms, HR
- 1.64
- Symptom duration >12 months, HR
- 0.71
- Morning stiffness ≥1 hour, HR
- 1.63
- Reported joint swelling, HR
- 1.51
- High ACPA titres vs only IgM-RF or low ACPA titres, HR
- 4.65
- Double positivity ACPA and IgM-RF vs only IgM-RF or low ACPA titres, HR
- 6.83
- Risk of developing arthritis with at least 3 variables present
- 58.2%
- Developed arthritis
- 33.7%
- Mean time till arthritis, months (SD 19.0)
- 19.6
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Serostatus of study population
- IgM-RF-positive
- 38%
- ACPA-positive
- 31%
- Positive for both ACPA and IgM-RF
- 30%
- Mean follow-up of those without arthritis, months (SD 24.5)
- 47.3
Original publication
Predictors of arthritis development in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis: a 5-year follow-up study from a large cohort. Ann Rheum Dis. Published 15 February 2025. doi:10.
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