Sjögren's disease & overlap diseases

Osteoporosis prediction in primary Sjögren’s syndrome: development and external validation of a machine-learning comparison model

Rheumatology (Oxford)Published Retrospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

A transparent, externally validated seven-variable model provides individualized DXA-defined osteoporosis risk estimation in pSS

Study context

Population
Patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS), Longhua Hospital, with external validation cohort from Shanghai Seventh People's Hospitalplus 266 external validation
Participants
1,000 patients
Exposure
Logistic regression vs seven supervised machine-learning algorithms
  • External validationn = 266
Outcome
DXA-defined osteoporosis (model performance by AUC, calibration and decision curve analysis)
Methodological detailsdevelopment and external validation of a prediction model, random 7:3 training/internal validation split, logistic regression compared with seven supervised machine-learning algorithms, Freely accessible web-based calculator developed for point-of-care use
  • Development and external validation of a prediction model
  • Random 7:3 training/internal validation split
  • Logistic regression compared with seven supervised machine-learning algorithms
  • Freely accessible web-based calculator developed for point-of-care use

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

AUC of final seven-predictor logistic regression model
GroupAUC
Training0.820
Internal validation0.807
External validation0.787

AUC

Training0.820
Internal validation0.807
External validation0.787

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Machine-learning models vs logistic regression

Machine-learning models achieved higher training AUCs but showed poorer transportability

Original publication

Osteoporosis prediction in primary Sjögren’s syndrome: development and external validation of a machine-learning comparison model. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 19 August 2026. doi:10.1093/rheumatology/keag446

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