Across rheumatic diseases

Novel multiclass classification machine learning approach for the early-stage classification of systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases

Lupus Sci MedPublished Diagnostic accuracy study

Authors' conclusion

This pioneering multiclass ML model, using basic laboratory indicators, enhances clinical feasibility and demonstrates promising potential for SARDs classification.

Study context

Population
Systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs) patients categorised into SLE, Sjögren's syndrome (SS) and inflammatory myositis (IM); model built on nine accessible laboratory indicators
Participants
925 patients2 cohorts
Comparison
Random forest (RF) tripartite classification model distinguishing SLE, IM and SS
Outcome
RF model classification performance (cohort 1)
Methodological detailsmulticlass machine learning, external validation
  • Multiclass machine learning
  • External validation

Performance

As reported in the abstract

Test or modelAUCSensitivitySpecificityPPVNPVAccuracyPrecisionRecallF1 score
SLE0.9530.8900.9100.9220.8540.8920.9300.9850.957
IM0.9030.8680.8360.7270.9150.8690.7930.9200.852
SS0.8360.7950.7480.6630.8790.8570.9500.6790.792

AUC

SLE0.953
IM0.903
SS0.836

Sensitivity

SLE0.890
IM0.868
SS0.795

Specificity

SLE0.910
IM0.836
SS0.748

PPV

SLE0.922
IM0.727
SS0.663

NPV

SLE0.854
IM0.915
SS0.879

Accuracy

SLE0.892
IM0.869
SS0.857

Precision

SLE0.930
IM0.793
SS0.950

Recall

SLE0.985
IM0.920
SS0.679

F1 score

SLE0.957
IM0.852
SS0.792

Further findings

External validation (cohort 2), overall accuracy

Overall accuracy
87.3%

SHAP analysis

Significant contributions from antibody profiles

Original publication

Novel multiclass classification machine learning approach for the early-stage classification of systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Lupus Sci Med. Published 31 January 2024. doi:10.1136/lupus-2023-001125

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