Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Machine learning-based identification of factors associated with spontaneous abortion in patients with Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE): Insights from the Egyptian College of Rheumatology (ECR)–SLE cohort
Authors' conclusion
Using information obtained in the clinical settings, the XGBoost identified variables associated with SA in women with SLE, including positive antiphospholipid antibodies, low complement 3 levels and longer disease duration.
Study context
- Population
- Adult SLE women from the ECR-SLE cohort with available spontaneous abortion (SA) data (mean ± SD age 32.5 ± 10.1 years; median disease duration 48 months)
- Participants
- 3,296 women
- Exposure
- Optimized XGBoost vs logistic regression (LR) for distinguishing patients with and without SA
- Outcome
- Discrimination of SA (unexplained pregnancy loss up to 20 weeks of gestation), AUC
Methodological detailsnational multicenter, XGBoost vs logistic regression, SHAP
- National multicenter
- XGBoost vs logistic regression
- SHAP
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination of SA, AUC
| Group | AUC |
|---|---|
| XGBoost | 0.99 |
| LR | 0.78 |
AUC
XGBoost0.99
LR0.78
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
At least one abortion (prevalence)
- Patients with at least one abortion
- About 13.9%
Important factors associated with SA (SHAP)
- Positive antiphospholipid antibodies, low complement 3, longer disease duration, hypertension, mucocutaneous ulcers, anticoagulant and steroid use
Original publication
Machine learning-based identification of factors associated with spontaneous abortion in patients with Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE): Insights from the Egyptian College of Rheumatology (ECR)–SLE cohort. Lupus. Published 11 January 2026. doi:10.
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