Identification of early risk factors for anti-citrullinated-protein-antibody positive rheumatoid arthritis—a prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
We propose a high RA risk phase characterized by presence of ACPA reactivity, tenosynovitis, IL-6 and IL-15Rα
Study context
- Population
- Anti-CCP2-positive individuals with musculoskeletal complaints referred to a rheumatologist, without arthritis at clinical and US examination; followed ≥3 years or until clinical arthritismedian follow-up 49 months
- Participants
- 267 individuals
- Outcome
- Arthritis progression (clinical arthritis diagnosis) and its independent predictors
Methodological detailsCox regression prediction model, cross-validated
- Cox regression prediction model
- Cross-validated
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Arthritis progression: independent predictors (Cox regression prediction model)
- Presence of at least one ACPA reactivity, HR
- 8.0 (2.9, 22) (95% CI)
- Ultrasound-detected tenosynovitis, HR
- 3.4 (2.0, 6.0) (95% CI)
- IL-6 levels, HR
- 1.5 (1.2, 1.8) (95% CI)
- IL-15Rα levels, HR
- 0.6 (0.4, 0.9) (95% CI)
- Prediction model Harrell's C (SE)
- 0.76 (0.02)
- Prediction model AUC
- 0.82 (0.76, 0.89) (95% CI)
- Cross-validated AUC
- 0.70 (0.56, 0.85) (95% CI)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Identification of early risk factors for anti-citrullinated-protein-antibody positive rheumatoid arthritis—a prospective cohort study. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 8 March 2024. doi:10.
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