Fibromyalgia & musculoskeletal pain
Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors' conclusion
Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise.
Study context
- Population
- Population-representative surveys of neck pain in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2020
- Comparison
- Females vs Males
- Outcome
- Neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) by age, sex and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050
- Follow-up
- 2020
Methodological detailssystematic reviews of population-representative surveys, Bayesian meta-regression (DisMod-MR 2.1), mixed-effects forecasting model to 2050, 204 countries and territories, 1990 to 2020
- Systematic reviews of population-representative surveys
- Bayesian meta-regression (DisMod-MR 2.1)
- Mixed-effects forecasting model to 2050
- 204 countries and territories
- 1990 to 2020
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Global neck pain burden, 2020
People affected by neck pain globally
203 million
95% UI 163–253
Global age-standardised prevalence rate per 100 000
2450
95% UI 1960–3040
Global age-standardised YLD rate per 100 000
244
95% UI 165–346
Further findings
Age-standardised prevalence rate by sex, per 100 000 · 2020
Change in age-standardised prevalence rate, 1990–2020
- Percentage change, remained stable
- 0.2% (95% UI −1.3 to 1.7)
Age-standardised prevalence rate by sex, per 100 000 · 2020
- Prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in both sexes
Projected global neck pain cases · 2050
- Projected cases by 2050
- 269 million (95% UI 219-322)
- Increase from 2020 to 2050
- 32.5% (95% UI 23.9-42.3)
- Population growth the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing
Original publication
Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol. Published March 2024. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →