Osteoporosis & bone health

Enhanced fracture risk prediction: a novel multi-trait genetic approach integrating polygenic scores of fracture-related traits

Osteoporos IntPublished Genetic prediction modelling study

Main finding · Incident fractures, per SD of metaPGSResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.21 per SD 95% CI 1.18–1.25

Authors' conclusion

The metaPGS is a promising approach for stratifying fracture risk in the European population, improving fracture risk prediction by combining genetic information from multiple fracture-related traits.

Study context

Population
European population
Comparison
Model with metaPGS vs base model of guideline-recommended clinical risk factors
Outcome
Incident fractures
Methodological detailselastic-net logistic regression, metaPGS combining 11 of 16 individual polygenic scores (PGSs)
  • Elastic-net logistic regression
  • metaPGS combining 11 of 16 individual PGSs

Main finding

Incident fractures, per SD of metaPGS

Hazard ratio

1.21 per SD

95% CI 1.18–1.25

metaPGS
HR 1.21 per SD (95% CI 1.18–1.25)

Per SD, as printed

As reported in the abstract

Further findings

C-index

OutcomemetaPGSPGS_FNBMDPGS_TBBMDBase model
Discrimination (c-index)0.6440.6400.6440.638

Discrimination (c-index)

Slightly higher but statistically non-significant c-index vs base model

Reclassification (net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI))

Model with metaPGS improves reclassification of fracture vs base model

Original publication

Enhanced fracture risk prediction: a novel multi-trait genetic approach integrating polygenic scores of fracture-related traits. Osteoporos Int. Published 7 May 2024. doi:10.1007/s00198-024-07105-5

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