Vasculitis & polymyalgia rheumatica
Development of a time-dependent prediction model for the risk of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia in ANCA-associated vasculitis
Authors' conclusion
We developed a time-dependent model to predict the risk of PJP in patients with AAV.
Study context
- Population
- Patients newly diagnosed with ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) between 2015 and 2024, nationwide claims database
- Participants
- 2,751 patients
- Outcome
- Risk of PJP (time-dependent prediction; discrimination, calibration and clinical utility)
Methodological detailsnationwide claims database, prediction model development, flexible parametric survival model, internal-external cross-validation
- Nationwide claims database
- Prediction model development
- Flexible parametric survival model
- Internal-external cross-validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Time-dependent C-index in IECV
Time-dependent C-index at 2 months
0.70
95% CI 0.60–0.79
Time-dependent C-index at 12 months
0.66
95% CI 0.61–0.71
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP) incidence
- Patients who developed PJP: 170
- 6.2%
Clinical utility per 1000 patients with AAV (61 PJP cases), monthly risk threshold 1.0%
- Recommended prophylaxis
- 948
- Recommended but had not received prophylaxis
- 643
- Potentially preventable PJP cases
- 34
- Could have discontinued prophylaxis during follow-up
- 336
Original publication
Development of a time-dependent prediction model for the risk of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia in ANCA-associated vasculitis. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 4 April 2026. doi:10.
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