Systemic sclerosis & Raynaud's

Development of a multivariable prediction model for progression of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease

RMD OpenPublished Prediction model development study

Authors' conclusion

Prediction of the progression of SSc-ILD may require different approaches in distinct subgroups of patients.

Study context

Population
Patients with SSc-ILD in the placebo group of the SENSCIS trialSENSCIS placebo group
Participants
288 vs 155
Comparison
Overall placebo vs Early/inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis
  • Overall placebon = 288
  • Early/inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosisn = 155
Primary endpoint
Progression of SSc-ILD (absolute decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) % predicted >5% or death)
Follow-up
52 weeks
Methodological detailssecondary analysis of the SENSCIS trial placebo group, logistic regression, multivariable model, apparent AUC
  • Secondary analysis of the SENSCIS trial placebo group
  • Logistic regression
  • Multivariable model
  • Apparent AUC

Primary result

As reported in the abstract

Performance of final multivariable model for predicting SSc-ILD progression
GroupApparent AUC
Overall placebo0.63
Early/inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis0.75

Apparent AUC

Overall placebo0.63
Early/inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis0.75

Original publication

Development of a multivariable prediction model for progression of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease. RMD Open. Published 5 September 2024. doi:10.1136/rmdopen-2024-004240

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