Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome

Development of clinical manifestations in individuals positive for antiphospholipid antibodies according to the 2023 ACR/EULAR serological domains

Semin Arthritis RheumPublished Retrospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

The 2023 ACR/EULAR laboratory scoring system lacked prognostic value in individuals positive for aPL.

Study context

Population
Patients with positive LA, aCL or anti-β2GPI (confirmed ≥12 weeks apart, except isolated LA), January 2018–March 2024, without 2006 Sydney criteria or clinical domains 1–4 at serological confirmationmedian follow-up 2.84 years
Participants
985 patients
Exposure
2023 ACR/EULAR serological domains and laboratory score as predictors of clinical manifestations in aPL-positive individuals
Outcome
Predictive performance of the 2023 ACR/EULAR laboratory score for clinical manifestations (domains 1-4)
Methodological detailsobservational, logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders, ROC curve analyses
  • Observational
  • Logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders
  • ROC curve analyses

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Prediction of clinical manifestations by the 2023 ACR/EULAR laboratory score

Laboratory score did not predict VTE, ATE, microvascular thrombosis, or obstetric morbidity (overall AUC)

0.535

Cumulative incidence of clinical events

<3%

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

ATE in low-risk patients: moderate/high IgM aCL/anti-β2GPI

OR (95% CI)P value
Moderate/high IgM aCL/anti-β2GPI2.89 (1.15–7.30)P = 0.025

Future antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) classification: high-titer IgG aCL/anti-β2GPI

OR (95% CI)P value
High-titer IgG aCL/anti-β2GPIIndependently linked4.73 (1.11–15.52)P = 0.01

Reduced event-free survival: high-titer IgG aCL/anti-β2GPI

HR for clinical event (reduced event-free survival) (95% CI)P value
High-titer IgG aCL/anti-β2GPI3.27 (1.17–9.16)P = 0.024

Median time to onset of clinical manifestations

Years

Obstetric morbidity
0.68
Arterial thrombosis (ATE)
0.80
Microvascular events
2.29

Original publication

Development of clinical manifestations in individuals positive for antiphospholipid antibodies according to the 2023 ACR/EULAR serological domains. Semin Arthritis Rheum. Published 19 February 2026. doi:10.1016/j.semarthrit.2026.152953

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