Development and validation of a model to predict the disease activity score: towards a remote treat-to-target approach for rheumatoid arthritis
Authors' conclusion
The proposed DAS intended for digital remote assessment combines clinical and PROM items and can accurately and efficiently distinguish between disease activity states in RA, supporting its potential use in remote monitoring in the future.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) from the treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort and TApering strategies in RA trials; external validation in the Early Arthritis Cohort5,802 visits, 612 pts
- Comparison
- DEVELOPMENT SET vs INTERNAL VALIDATION SET vs EXTERNAL VALIDATION SET
- Outcome
- Ability of the model (clinical and patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) items) to detect active disease (disease activity score (DAS) >2.4) and remission (DAS <1.6), by AUC-ROC
Methodological detailsLeast Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, random 1:1 split into derivation and internal validation sets, external validation
- LASSO regression
- Random 1:1 split into derivation and internal validation sets
- External validation
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Detection of active disease (DAS >2.4), AUC-ROC
| Test or model | AUC |
|---|---|
| Development set | 0.89 |
| Internal validation set | 0.89 |
| External validation set | 0.82 |
AUC
Development set0.89
Internal validation set0.89
External validation set0.82
Further findings
| Outcome | DEVELOPMENT SET | INTERNAL VALIDATION SET | EXTERNAL VALIDATION SET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detection of remission (DAS <1.6), AUC-ROC | |||
| AUC | 0.86 | 0.85 | 0.82 |
Final model predictors
- Predictors retained: age, sex, disease duration, visual analogue scale (VAS) general health, 7 Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) items, VAS pain
- 12 out of 28
Original publication
Development and validation of a model to predict the disease activity score: towards a remote treat-to-target approach for rheumatoid arthritis. Ann Rheum Dis. Published 18 December 2025. doi:10.
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