Rheumatoid arthritis

Development and internal validation of a clinical and genetic risk score for rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease

Rheumatology (Oxford)Published Prediction model development and internal validation study

Authors' conclusion

A clinical and genetic risk model discriminated ILD in a large, multicentre RA cohort better than a clinical-only model, excluding 20% of the cohort from low-yield testing.

Study context

Population
Participants in the Veterans Affairs RA (VARA) registry genotyped for 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (89% male, mean age 69.5 years)9.4% had ILD
Participants
2,386 participants
Comparison
Combined clinical and genetic risk model vs clinical-only model
Outcome
Discrimination of ILD (AUC)
Methodological detailsmulticentre, prospective cohort, logistic regression, bootstrapping internal validation
  • Multicentre
  • Prospective cohort
  • Logistic regression
  • Bootstrapping internal validation

Performance

As reported in the abstract

Discrimination of ILD, AUC
Test or modelAUCShrinkage-corrected AUC (95% CI 0.628, 0.712)Shrinkage-corrected AUC (95% CI 0.584, 0.651)
Combined0.6750.667— not stated in the abstract
Clinical-only0.635— not stated in the abstract0.623

AUC

Combined0.675
Clinical-only0.635

Shrinkage-corrected AUC (95% CI 0.628, 0.712)

Combined0.667
Clinical-only— not stated in the abstract

Shrinkage-corrected AUC (95% CI 0.584, 0.651)

Combined— not stated in the abstract
Clinical-only0.623

— not stated in the abstract

  • Combined vs Clinical-only: P < 0.001

Further findings

Cohort with combined risk score below a cut-point with >90% sensitivity
Twenty percent

Original publication

Development and internal validation of a clinical and genetic risk score for rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 18 January 2024. doi:10.1093/rheumatology/keae001

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