Development and External Validation of a Model Predicting New‐Onset Chronic Uveitis at Different Disease Durations in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis
Authors' conclusion
We present for the first time a validated prognostic tool for easily predicting chronic uveitis risk for individual JIA patients using common clinical parameters.
Study context
- Population
- Children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA); international Pharmachild registry for development, UK Childhood Arthritis Prospective Study (CAPS) and German ICON inception cohorts for validationdevelopment cohort
- Participants
- 5,393 children
- Comparison
- Pharmachild vs ICON vs CAPS
- Pharmachildn = 5,393
- Outcome
- New-onset chronic uveitis; model performance by calibration plots and C statistics for the 2-, 4- and 7-year risk of uveitis
Methodological detailsmultivariable Cox proportional hazards model, backward selection, multiple imputation, external validation and recalibration in 2 inception cohorts, Diagram and digital risk calculator created for clinical practice
- Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model
- Backward selection
- Multiple imputation
- External validation and recalibration in 2 inception cohorts
- Diagram and digital risk calculator created for clinical practice
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Predictors of new-onset chronic uveitis (development model)
Hazard ratio (95% CI)
Age at JIA onset
0.83(0.77–0.89)
ANA positivity
1.59(1.06–2.38)
Oligoarthritis, PsA and undifferentiated arthritisvs RF-negative polyarthritisInternational League of Associations for Rheumatology category of JIA
1.40(0.91–2.16)
Further findings
C statistic
| Outcome | ICON | CAPS |
|---|---|---|
| External validation of recalibrated model: C statistic for 7-year risk of uveitis | 0.75 (95% CI 0.72–0.79) | 0.70 (95% CI 0.64–0.76) |
External validation of recalibrated model: C statistic for 7-year risk of uveitis
- Performance in validation cohorts acceptable; calibration plots indicated good calibration
Original publication
Development and External Validation of a Model Predicting New‐Onset Chronic Uveitis at Different Disease Durations in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis. Arthritis Rheumatol. Published 13 December 2022. doi:10.
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