Spondyloarthritis & psoriatic arthritis
Derivation of a Multivariable Psoriatic Arthritis Risk Estimation Tool ( PRESTO ): A Step Towards Prevention
Authors' conclusion
The development of PsA within clinically meaningful time frames can be predicted with reasonable accuracy for psoriasis patients using readily available clinical variables.
Study context
- Population
- Psoriasis patients without psoriatic arthritis (PsA) at enrollment, prospective cohort
- Participants
- 635 patients
- Outcome
- Development of PsA (risk prediction model performance by AUC and calibration)
- Follow-up
- 1 and 5 years
Methodological detailsprediction model derivation, penalized binary regression, adjusted for psoriasis duration, annual rheumatologist assessment
- Prediction model derivation
- Penalized binary regression
- Adjusted for psoriasis duration
- Annual rheumatologist assessment
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Developed PsA within 1 year
51
Developed PsA within 5 years
71
1-year model AUC (younger age, male sex, family history of psoriasis, back stiffness, nail pitting, joint stiffness, biologic use, patient global health, pain severity)
72.3
5-year model AUC (morning stiffness, psoriatic nail lesion, psoriasis severity, fatigue, pain, systemic nonbiologic medication or phototherapy)
74.9
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
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