A new serum biochemical marker of synovium turnover predicts radiographic progression in patients with early arthritis
Authors' conclusion
Increased serum Col 3-4 is associated with a higher risk of structural progression, independently of major risk factors.
Study context
- Population
- Early arthritis patients (<6 months of symptoms; 82% RA, 18% undifferentiated arthritis) from the prospective ESPOIR study
- Participants
- 788 patients
- Exposure
- Baseline serum Col 3-4 levels and radiographic progression
- Outcome
- Radiographic progression: increase of 5 units in van der Heijde modified Sharp score between baseline and 5 years (1 unit at 1 year)
- Follow-up
- 5 years
Methodological detailslogistic regression
- Logistic regression
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
5-yr total damage progression, per SD increase of baseline Col 3-4
OR per SD increase of baseline Col 3-4
1.51
95% CI 1.21, 1.88
OR adjusted for DAS28, CRP and ACPA positivity
1.34
95% CI 1.01, 1.76
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Progression by Col 3-4 in highest quintile and bone erosion
- OR, both highest-quintile Col 3-4 and bone erosion
- 7.16 (95% CI 2.31, 22)
- OR, high Col 3-4 alone
- 2.91 (95% CI 1.79, 4.73)
- OR, bone erosion alone
- 2.36 (95% CI 2.38, 3.70)
12-month progression
- Similar associations were observed for prediction of 12 months progression
Original publication
A new serum biochemical marker of synovium turnover predicts radiographic progression in patients with early arthritis. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 20 July 2023. doi:10.
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