Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Validation of three prediction models for thrombosis recurrence in antiphospholipid syndrome patients based on a prospective cohort
Authors' conclusion
The performance of aGAPSS, Padua and Caprini score to predict thrombosis recurrence in APS were suboptimal. Arterial and venous thrombosis recurrence predictors were different.
Study context
- Population
- Consecutive thrombotic-APS patients (mean age 36.30±13.88 years; 57.7% female)median follow-up 2.32 years
- Participants
- 362 patients
- Exposure
- aGAPSS vs Padua score vs Caprini score for predicting thrombosis recurrence
- Outcome
- Discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration of prediction models for thrombosis recurrence
Methodological detailsprediction model validation, consecutive patients
- Prediction model validation
- Consecutive patients
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Thrombosis recurrence, Harrell c-index
| Group | Harrell c-index |
|---|---|
| aGAPSS | 0.54 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.64) |
| Padua | 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62) |
| Caprini | 0.50 (95%CI 0.42 to 0.58) |
Harrell c-index
aGAPSS0.54 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.64)
Padua0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62)
Caprini0.50 (95%CI 0.42 to 0.58)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | aGAPSS | Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Venous thrombosis recurrence, Harrell c-index (best discrimination) | ||
| Harrell c-index | — not stated in the abstract | 0.61, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.69 |
| Arterial thrombosis recurrence, Harrell c-index (best discrimination) | ||
| Harrell c-index | 0.61, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.75 | — not stated in the abstract |
— not stated in the abstract
Thrombosis recurrence during follow-up · median 2.32 years
- Venous thrombosis
- 32 (8.84%)
- Arterial thrombosis
- 21 (5.80%)
- 1-year thrombosis risk
- 5.0%
- 3-year thrombosis risk
- 14.3%
- 5-year thrombosis risk
- 17.9%
Original publication
Validation of three prediction models for thrombosis recurrence in antiphospholipid syndrome patients based on a prospective cohort. RMD Open. Published 28 July 2023. doi:10.
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