Trends in autoimmune rheumatic disease diagnoses before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in England: a population-based cohort study using OpenSAFELY
Authors' conclusion
Persistent reductions in diagnoses remain evident for psoriatic arthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and giant cell arteritis 5 years after the onset of the pandemic; contrasting a post-pandemic increase in axial spondyloarthritis diagnoses, particularly in women.
Study context
- Population
- All adults (aged ≥18 years) in England registered with general practices using TPP software; ten autoimmune rheumatic diseases, April 1, 2016–March 31, 2025reference population
- Participants
- 23,353,040 adults
- Exposure
- Observed vs expected diagnosis rates after pandemic onset
- Outcome
- Incident diagnosis rates for ten autoimmune rheumatic diseases, observed vs expected
- Follow-up
- March, 2025
Methodological detailsobservational, Prophet time-series forecasting of expected vs observed rates, OpenSAFELY platform
- Observational
- Prophet time-series forecasting of expected vs observed rates
- OpenSAFELY platform
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
PsA: cumulative difference in diagnoses (95% PI −12 780 to −11 860); percentage difference −24.9% (95% PI −25.6 to −24.2)
−12 320
RA: cumulative difference in diagnoses (−13 280 to −10 110); percentage difference −9.8% (−11.0 to −8.6)
−11 690
GCA: cumulative difference in diagnoses (−6130 to −5200); percentage difference −15.2% (−16.3 to −14.1)
−5660
axSpA: cumulative increase above pre-pandemic levels (1670 to 2410); percentage difference 8.9% (7.1 to 10.7)
2040
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Diagnosis rates in first year of pandemic
- Sharply declined across all autoimmune rheumatic diseases except small vessel vasculitis
axSpA diagnosis rates by sex · 2023 onwards
- Rates in women exceeded those in men from 2023 onwards
Connective tissue diseases
- Early diagnostic deficits followed by compensatory increases during the pandemic recovery period
Original publication
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →