Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Time trends of variability in disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus
Authors' conclusion
Disease activity tends to be less variable among patients with higher or more variable disease activity in the previous year. Within-patient variability in disease activity has a stronger impact on subsequent fluctuations than differences between individual patients.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with SLE across 13 countries, clinic visits 2013–2020
- Participants
- 2,930 patients38,754 clinic visits
- Outcome
- Predictors of yearly change in time-adjusted mean disease activity (AMS) (variability in SLE disease activity)
- Follow-up
- Subsequent year
Methodological detailsmultinational (13 countries), panel data with 1-year intervals, random-effects models
- Multinational (13 countries)
- Panel data with 1-year intervals
- Random-effects models
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Per 1-point increase in person-mean disease activity: decrease in subsequent variability
0.27-point decrease
95% CI −0.29 to −0.26p<0.001
Per 1-point increase in within-patient disease activity variability: decrease in the subsequent year
0.56-point decrease
95% CI −0.57 to −0.55p<0.001
Per 1-point increase in annual average time-adjusted mean PGA: decrease in disease activity variability for the following year
0.08-point decrease
90% CI −0.13 to −0.03p=0.002
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
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