The predictive value of antinuclear antibodies in patients with suspected connective tissue disease for the development of connective tissue diseases
Authors' conclusion
Progression to a CTD diagnosis is rare in undiagnosed patients. Undiagnosed patients with symptoms associated with a CTD who progress to a CTD more often have ANAs than patients with similar symptoms who do not progress to a CTD.
Study context
- Population
- Patients tested for antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) and their specificity in 2013/2014, undiagnosed patients suspected of having connective tissue diseases (CTDs); follow-up to 2020
- Participants
- 1,030 patients
- Exposure
- Patients who developed a new CTD vs symptomatic undiagnosed patients without subsequent CTD vs patients with established CTD at baseline
- Newly diagnosed CTDn = 16
- Outcome
- Prevalence of ANAs and predictive value of ANAs for development of a future CTD
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Positive ANA screening test
Newly diagnosed CTD vs CTD at baseline: P = ns · Newly diagnosed CTD vs Symptomatic undiagnosed: P < 0.001
- PPV of ANA screening for new CTD in undiagnosed symptomatic patients
- 7%
- NPV of ANA screening for new CTD in undiagnosed symptomatic patients
- 98%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Development of a new CTD · between baseline blood draw and 2020
- Patients developing a new CTD
- 16 out of 1030
- Mean time from baseline blood draw to CTD diagnosis (approximately)
- 2.3 years
Specific ANAs associated with the suspected CTD
- PPV
- 12%
- NPV
- 98%
Original publication
The predictive value of antinuclear antibodies in patients with suspected connective tissue disease for the development of connective tissue diseases. Clin Exp Rheumatol. Published 10 July 2022. doi:10.
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