The expanded cardiovascular risk prediction score as a cardiovascular mortality predictor in rheumatoid arthritis
Authors' conclusion
The ERS-RA was superior to the Framingham scale in the prediction of CV mortality in patients with RA.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) ultrasound and clinical information to calculate the ERS-RA and Framingham score
- Participants
- 1,194 patients10,063 person-years
- Comparison
- ERS-RA vs Framingham cardiovascular (CV) risk score vs carotid IMT as predictors of CV mortality
- Outcome
- CV mortality (death certificate; ICDM-9 codes 390-459)
Methodological detailsROC AUC comparison, reclassification tables
- ROC AUC comparison
- Reclassification tables
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Prediction of CV death (ROC AUC)
Correctly reclassified
6%
P = 0.02
ERS-RA
Correctly reclassified
5%
P = 0.003
Carotid IMT
ERS-RA
0.84
95% CI 0.81, 0.88
AUC
Carotid IMT
0.76
95% CI 0.72, 0.81
AUC
Framingham
0.72
95% CI 0.68, 0.76
AUC
Further findings
All-cause mortality (whole cohort) · 10,063 person-years
- Patients who died
- 271 (22.6%)
- Overall mortality rate, deaths per 100 person-years
- 2.7 (95% CI 2.4, 3.0)
CV mortality (whole cohort) · 10,063 person-years
- Patients with a CV cause of death
- 139 (11.6%)
- CV mortality rate per 100 person-years (1.2, 1.6)
- 1.4
Original publication
The expanded cardiovascular risk prediction score as a cardiovascular mortality predictor in rheumatoid arthritis. Clin Exp Rheumatol. Published 4 December 2025. doi:10.
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