Sequential disease activity assessment for predicting future treatment trajectories in patients with rheumatoid arthritis treated with Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors: a group-based trajectory and landmark analysis
Authors' conclusion
Early disease activity dynamically refined the prediction of future treatment trajectories in patients with RA treated with JAK inhibitors. The absolute CDAI at landmark time points was more informative than change-based metrics
Study context
- Population
- Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with JAKi, multicentre registry
- Participants
- 843 patients
- Exposure
- Rapid responders vs Partial responders with persistent residual disease activity vs Responders with high baseline disease activity vs Persistent nonresponders
- Outcome
- Distinct CDAI trajectories over 52 weeks and prediction of favourable trajectory by early disease activity
- Follow-up
- 52 weeks
Methodological detailsgroup-based trajectory and landmark analysis, multicentre registry, group-based trajectory modelling, landmark analyses at weeks 4 and 12, multivariate logistic regression with multiple imputations, bootstrap-based internal validation
- Group-based trajectory and landmark analysis
- Multicentre registry
- Group-based trajectory modelling
- Landmark analyses at weeks 4 and 12
- Multivariate logistic regression with multiple imputations
- Bootstrap-based internal validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
CDAI trajectory groups (proportion of patients)
- Week-52 remission rates ranged across the groups
- 0.0% to 47.7%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Prediction of favourable trajectory (landmark analyses) · weeks 4 and 12
- Optimal Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) threshold, week 4
- 12.0
- Optimal CDAI threshold, week 12
- 9.3
- Incorporating CDAI at landmark time points substantially improved prediction; CDAI slope provided minimal additional predictive value
- Brier scores improved markedly after week-12 CDAI, minimal further improvement after CDAI slope
- Bootstrap validation: minimal optimism and good calibration
Original publication
Sequential disease activity assessment for predicting future treatment trajectories in patients with rheumatoid arthritis treated with JAK inhibitors: a group-based trajectory and landmark analysis. Ann Rheum Dis. Published 10 September 2026. doi:10.
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